(1) Expected value — probability-weighted outcomes under each option (2) Regret minimization — which option you're least likely to regret at age 80 (3) Values coherence — which option is most consistent with stated values

with specific evidence (4) Reversibility index — how easily each option can be undone if it's wrong (5) Second-order effects — what follows from each option in 6 months and 3 years (6) Advice to a friend — if a trusted friend described this exact situation